The Effects of Incentivizing Electric Vehicles Versus Hybrids on Emissions, Innovation, and Welfare
FACULTY SUPERVISOR:
PROJECT AND POSITION DESCRIPTION
In the past decade, there have been remarkable technological advances in battery technology, with battery prices declining from over $1,200/kWh to around $120/kWh today and forecasts of continued cost declines in the upcoming years by the National Academies and industry groups such as Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Indeed, there are over 30 electric vehicles offered in the United States light-duty vehicle market and a tremendous amount of policy effort has been exerted to promote these vehicle options. However, producing batteries is by no means environmentally benign and involves large quantities of energy and critical metals, and thus has effects on land and emissions. This raises the question of whether conventional hybrids—which include a small battery for regenerative braking to improve fuel economy—may be more effective and cost-effective for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
This proposed study will quantify the emissions reductions possible from different light-duty transportation sector decarbonization strategies. At one extreme, there is the scenario that appears to be the primary case today: an exclusive focus on electric vehicles. But rather than exclusively focusing on electric vehicles, one could imagine policy approaches that incentivize both electric vehicles and hybrids, or even a scenario that focuses only on hybrids. There could be a middle ground as well with plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) playing a larger role. The current policy landscape consists of electric vehicle tax credits, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency vehicle greenhouse gas standards (which permit meeting the standard with hybrids, but provide an added bonus to electric vehicles), U.S. Department of Transportation Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, zero-emission vehicle standards in many states, and other local and state electric vehicle incentives. The goal of the study will be to explore how reworking several of these policies towards hybrids could lead to different outcomes, such as emissions, innovation, and welfare.
REQUISITE SKILLS AND QUALIFICATIONS
The Tobin Center predoctoral fellow is expected to have a strong undergraduate background in data management and statistical methods. Knowledge of Stata, R, and Python is especially welcome.