Business Restrictions and COVID-19 Fatalities

Researchers collect time-series data of business and related restrictions across the U.S. and discuss findings on the efficacy of different types of business closures in the prevention of COVID-19-related fatalities.

After analysis of national data on business closures and fatalities, researchers find strong evidence that certain types of policies, such as mask policies and the closure of certain types of businesses, reduce the growth of future fatalities. Alternatively, researchers find that other types of closures, particularly those that are considered low- to medium-risk, did not result in consistent evidence of lowered fatality growth. Such findings are relevant in the cost-benefit analysis of economic loss and preservation of life in the context of business closures related to COVID-19.

Abstract and Citation

Matthew Spiegel, Heather Tookes, Business Restrictions and COVID-19 Fatalities, The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 34, Issue 11, November 2021, Pages 5266–5308, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab069

Abstract

We collect a time-series database of business and related restrictions for every county in the United States from March through December 2020. We find strong evidence consistent with the idea that employee mask policies, mask mandates for the general population, restaurant and bar closures, gym closures, and high-risk business closures reduce future fatality growth. Other business restrictions, such as second-round closures of low- to medium-risk businesses and personal care/spa services, did not generate consistent evidence of lowered fatality growth and may have been counterproductive.

Publication Link

https://academic.oup.com/rfs/article/34/11/5266/6304878

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