How Rising ICE Activity Influences the Childcare Workforce

Roughly one in five childcare workers is foreign-born, making the sector among the most immigrant-intensive in the U.S. labor market. Past research has shown that immigration enforcement reduces employment in immigrant-heavy sectors, and that its effects extend well beyond directly-targeted workers through fear, uncertainty, and avoidance of public-facing roles—a phenomenon known as "chilling effects."

Now, a new analysis is the first to examine how the dramatic 2025 escalation in community-based immigration enforcement has reshaped the childcare sector. Linking monthly Current Population Survey data with newly compiled state-level ICE arrest records, the researchers find that the sharp post-inauguration enforcement surge significantly reduced foreign-born women's employment in childcare, with effects concentrated in the most regulated and publicly visible care settings.

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Key Learnings

• Foreign-born women's employment in center-based childcare fell significantly following Trump's inauguration. A doubling of the ICE apprehension rate—roughly the size of the post-inauguration increase—is associated with a loss of approximately 52,900 foreign-born women from center-based settings.
• Employment shifted across childcare settings rather than out of the sector entirely. As center-based employment fell, foreign-born employment in private household childcare rose by approximately 28,400 workers, consistent with a reallocation toward less visible, less formal care arrangements. The rise partially offset the 52,900-worker center-based decline, leaving a net loss of roughly 24,500 foreign-born workers in the sector.
• Following President Trump's second inauguration, foreign-born women's childcare employment was more sensitive to ICE enforcement than before. This period was marked by both higher arrest rates and heightened public attention to immigration enforcement, with Google search activity for "ICE arrest" rising roughly sixteen-fold compared to the same months of the prior year.
• Native-born workers show limited employment responses, with no evidence of broad substitution for departing foreign-born workers.

Motivation

The early months of the second Trump administration produced a sharp shift in U.S. immigration enforcement, with community-based ICE arrests per 10,000 foreign-born residents climbing roughly fivefold in the first eight months of 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier. The administration also rescinded a Biden-era policy that had directed immigration officers to avoid enforcement actions near locations providing essential services, including childcare centers and preschools.

These developments raise pressing questions for an essential, immigrant-dependent sector. How has the post-inauguration enforcement surge affected employment in childcare? Are workers leaving the sector, or shifting toward less visible forms of work?

In this paper, the researchers study how increased ICE enforcement has reshaped employment across three main childcare settings.

Data and Approach

The researchers link monthly Current Population Survey data on employment for both foreign- and native-born women with ICE apprehension records from the Deportation Data Project. The resulting dataset covers monthly childcare employment outcomes for women ages 22 to 64 from September 2023 through September 2025, linked to state-level ICE enforcement activity over the same period.

The study focuses on community-based ICE arrests, which occur in workplaces, on the road, and in other public settings rather than in correctional facilities. These arrests are most visible to workers and families, and account for the bulk of the post-inauguration surge.

The researchers measure employment separately across three childcare settings: center-based providers (licensed daycare centers and preschools), home-based providers (self-employed family caregivers), and private household caregivers (nannies and babysitters working in individual homes), which vary sharply in regulatory visibility and exposure to enforcement activity.

Using these data, the researchers test whether childcare employment responded differently to local ICE activity after Trump's January 2025 inauguration than before. They also use an event-study design—comparing states that experienced larger versus smaller enforcement surges—to trace how employment evolved month-by-month around the inauguration.

Effects on the Childcare Workforce

Following Trump's inauguration, foreign-born women's employment in center-based childcare fell sharply. A 1% increase in community-based ICE apprehensions corresponds to a 0.44% decline in foreign-born center-based employment in the post-inauguration period—an estimated loss of roughly 52,900 workers from the most regulated, publicly visible setting in the sector.

At the same time, foreign-born employment in private household childcare rose by approximately 28,400 workers, consistent with a reallocation toward less visible, less formal arrangements that may offer greater insulation from enforcement activity. The net result was a decline of roughly 24,500 foreign-born workers in the childcare sector overall.

This contraction reflects a heightened sensitivity to ICE enforcement under the second Trump administration. Although ICE activity was already associated with lower childcare employment before 2025, the post-inauguration period—marked by both higher arrest rates and dramatically heightened public attention to enforcement, with Google search activity for "ICE arrest" up sixteen-fold—produced employment responses that were substantially sharper than those observed in earlier periods.

Employment responses among native-born women were modest, with little evidence of broad substitution for departing foreign-born workers.

Policy Implications

Intensified immigration enforcement reshapes essential labor markets in ways that extend well beyond the direct removal of immigrant workers. Rather than pushing workers out of the childcare sector entirely, heightened enforcement appears to reallocate them away from regulated, publicly visible settings and toward less formal, less stable arrangements.

These shifts carry real consequences. Center-based childcare plays a central role in supporting parental employment, particularly for families with young children and dual earners. Reductions in staffing at childcare centers may constrain capacity, increase costs, or reduce the availability of care. A shift toward private household arrangements may place care further out of reach for lower- and middle-income families, while moving childcare work into settings that are less regulated, lower-quality on average, and less stable for workers.

More broadly, the results show that immigration enforcement policies can reshape essential services through fear and uncertainty alone—not only through direct removals. Sectors that are immigrant-intensive, that vary in regulatory visibility, and that face limited short-run substitution possibilities are particularly vulnerable to such effects. The childcare sector is one such sector. Others, including agriculture, construction, food service, and elder care, share these features and merit further study.