Life expectancy in California still hasn’t rebounded to pre-pandemic levels

An analysis published in JAMA from researchers at Northwestern University, Yale University, the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) reports new estimates of life expectancy from the state of California.

The analysis finds that, in 2024, average life expectancy in the state still failed to return to pre-pandemic levels. The average life expectancy of Californians was 0.86 years lower than it was in 2019, with drug overdoses and cardiovascular disease overtaking Covid-19 as leading contributors to the reduction in years.

These estimates are in advance of national life expectancy estimates for 2024 expected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) this fall. The annual estimates released each fall shed light on overall health and wellbeing for different populations and help inform a wide variety of policies and public health measures. California represents an eighth of the U.S. population and the state’s data allows the analysis of trends by income, which the U.S. data does not.

What We Learned

As of 2024, average life expectancy in California still hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels. Before the pandemic, life expectancy was rising in California. It dropped during the pandemic, reaching its lowest point in 2021 before beginning to rise again. But by 2024, average life expectancy in the state was still 0.86 years lower than it was in 2019, meaning that only two-thirds of the loss due to the Covid-19 pandemic had been recovered after five years.

Recovery was poorest for Black and Hispanic Californians. The 2019-2024 life expectancy gap was 1.48 for Black Californians, 1.44 years for Hispanic Californians, 1.06 years for Asian Californians, and 0.63 years for White Californians. Asian Californians continue to have the highest life expectancy–85.51 years–of any group in California, compared to less than 73.42 years for Black Californians. The life expectancy gap between Black and White Californians remained higher in 2024 than 2019 (6.52 years vs. 5.67 years).

Life expectancy gaps between the poorest and richest Californians have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Although the lowest-income Californians experienced a bigger drop in life expectancy during the pandemic than the richest, the gap in life expectancy between the two groups was about the same in 2024–5.77 years–as it was in 2019.

Covid isn’t to blame for the remaining gaps. Covid accounted for 12.8% of the 2019-2024 life expectancy gap across all groups. Drug overdoses accounted for 19.8% of the gap and cardiovascular disease accounted for 16.3%.

Over the last five years, drug overdoses had the biggest impact on life expectancy for Black and low-income Californians. From 2019-2024, drug overdoses–likely due to increased exposure to fentanyl–pushed down life expectancy across all racial groups, but had the biggest impact on life expectancy for Black Californians. Drug overdoses accounted for .55 years of the 2019-2024 life expectancy gap for Black Californians compared to .22 years for Hispanic Californians, .10 years for White Californians, and .05 years for Asian Californians. Drug overdoses accounted for almost none of the 2019-2024 life expectancy gap for the richest Californians, but .26 years of the gap for the poorest Californians.

But there are signs of progress on drug overdoses. The contribution of drug overdoses to declining rates of life expectancy doubled from 2020-2023. But the 2024 numbers show signs of progress. In 2024, drug overdoses were responsible for 0.17 years of the drop, compared to 0.40 years in 2023, 0.37 years in 2022, 0.36 years in 2021, and 0.20 years in 2020.

Cardiovascular disease is pushing down life expectancy for the richest Californians. For the first time, cardiovascular disease played a bigger role than Covid-19 in the overall life expectancy drop for Californians. It accounted for 0.22 years of the 2019-2024 life expectancy gap for the highest-earning Californians, contributing less than it did during the pandemic but still playing a slightly larger role than in 2019.

Research Details

• The Failure of Life Expectancy to Fully Rebound to Prepandemic Levels, JAMA, July 9, 2025

Methodology

Data on deaths were obtained from the California Comprehensive Death Files and population counts for calculating mortality were from the American Community Survey. Life expectancy gaps by income were calculated using quartiles based on median income in residential census tracts. To study gaps for four racial and ethnic groups (Hispanic, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic White), the authors used data as reported in fixed categories on death certificates. Contributions by cause of death were calculated using the Arriaga method.