Discussion Paper

U.S. Urban Crime Trends During Covid-19

Published: July 2020

Author(s): Joseph Altonji, Zara Contractor, Lucas Finamor, Ryan Haygood, Ilse Lindenlaub, Costas Meghir & Dana Scott

Researchers analyze the impacts of COVID-19 on rate of reported crime.

Reviewing city-level crime data early in the pandemic, researchers reach conclusions about changes in reported crime during early COVID-19. They find that violent and nonviolent crime both decreased, with much of the decrease occurring in public places (as opposed to residential areas). They note an increase in certain types of crime, and also note that their conclusions may not account for changes in reporting rates during this time.

Abstract and Citation

U.S. Urban Crime Trends During Covid-19
Joseph Altonji, Zara Contractor, Lucas Finamor, Ryan Haygood, Ilse Lindenlaub, Costas
Meghir, Dana Scott, Liana Wang and Ebonya Washington
Tobin Center for Economic Policy
Yale University
July 5, 2020

Abstract

Using city-level crime data for six major U.S. cities from Jan 21 to May 30 2020, we document an approximately 20% average reduction in reported crimes during March, simultaneous with sharp economic downturn and heightened social distancing restrictions. We also decompose trends by crime type and location. Our key findings are:

Since the steep 20% crime drop in March, overall rates have steadily risen but remain below pre-pandemic levels on average.
Crimes committed in commercial and street settings (as opposed to residential areas) account for most of the drop in crimes.
Violent crimes decline in similar proportion to nonviolent crimes.
Though larcenies fall by one-third, other kinds of theft like burglary and auto theft rise.

Caveats to our findings include the possibility of simultaneous changes in reporting and policing activities.

Publication Link

https://tobin.yale.edu/sites/default/files/covid-19%20response/Covid%20Crime%20Report.pdf

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