Tobin 2024: Ready for What's Next
The Tobin Center at Yale is setting a new standard for how universities work with policymakers to drive real change.
This past year, Tobin Center faculty, students, and policy teams advanced innovative research on many of the country's biggest—and most urgent—policy questions.
We completed novel research on child care hailed as “groundbreaking” by the Washington Post; quantified the impact of tariffs on U.S. consumers; helped power the emerging national conversation on infrastructure costs, and; provided new insights on what’s driving high health care prices and how to bring them down.
Deepening our state and local partnerships, we rolled up our sleeves to implement on-the-ground innovations in Medicaid delivery, K-12 education, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and more.
In all our work, we aim to answer Yale President McInnis's call to “share light and truth” and to provide evidence-based solutions to today’s most challenging problems.
Looking ahead, we’re ready to help states, communities, and other partners navigate unprecedented change by providing the critical, data-driven analysis they need.
We believe such institutions, in promoting stability and progress, are critically important at this time, especially as they grapple with new challenges. We’re prepared to meet the moment, and we will remain steadfast in our pursuit of Yale’s mission to improve the world, today and for generations to come.
After five years of innovation and impact, we’re ready for what’s next.
2024 BY THE NUMBERS
Supported 66 faculty members and 70 research papers
Informed 80 stories in major news outlets
Cited in 8 White House publications and federal initiatives, with 15 citations in the 2024 Economic Report of the President
Collaborated with 15 government agencies
Embedded 20 fellows, data scientists, and technologists in Connecticut state government
Mentored 70 young scholars through our pre-doctoral fellows program
IMPACT
We identified one of the most effective pro-work policies ever evaluated. It’s spending on childcare.
What we learned
Research from Profs. John Eric Humphries, Christopher Neilson, and Seth Zimmerman showed that parents whose children were enrolled in a Pre-K program that matched their work hours were able work more and earn 22% more.
This earnings advantage continued far into the future. What’s more, the program shows notably high return for the public dollar, with a return-on-investment of over $10 to $1.
How it made a difference
When seen as a labor market policy, the researchers call full-day early care “one the most cost-effective labor policies ever evaluated.”
This research responds to a call to action during former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit to the Tobin Center, where she noted researchers have long decried the lack of evidence on how early care access affects parents’ work and earnings. Knowing what policy characteristics boost parental income, and to what degree, can be game-changing for policy design. Tobin research provides the first definitive answers, equipping policymakers to set child care policies that maximize family economic stability.
IMPACT
Health care prices keep rising–here’s one way to bring them down
What we learned
In an extensive, landmark analysis, Tobin Center Health Policy Director Zack Cooper showed that hospital mergers are a major driver of ever-rising health care prices, and that they also lead to job losses and poor health outcomes for local workers outside the health care sector.
Read more in the Wall Street Journal
How it made a difference
Rising health care prices are a nationwide concern, and Prof. Cooper’s research uncovered a concrete way state and local policymakers can provide relief in their own communities.
As an example of an impact strategy that could be replicated in other states, our team responded to news of a potential hospital merger in Indiana by engaging with the state’s governor, attorney general, and health commissioner, as well as with local media, to share actionable data on how the merger could impact the local community. Since then, there’s been robust dialogue among state decision makers and a commitment for action from state legislators. Our engagement in the state is ongoing, and we're fielding interest nationwide.
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen with Yale Professor Amit Khandelwal at a 2023 Tobin Center event.
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT: TARIFFS AND TRADE
In anticipation of even more changes to global trade policy during the new federal administration, Tobin-affiliate Prof. Amit Khandelwal has helped steer the national conversation on tariffs through a series of major papers.
Prof. Khandelwal quantified losses to U.S. consumers of key policies, tracked how bystander countries responded, and showed that ending a trade provision that allows low-cost goods to enter the country duty-free would disproportionately harm low-income and minority consumers. Khandelwal’s work regularly informs national news coverage.
Our work on trade also addressed increased and sustained risk to supply chains. Alongside Prof. Aleh Tysvinski, we convened leading academics to identify promising paths to reduce disruptions.
Informing climate policy at the federal and state levels
In 2024, our work on climate and energy policy focused on the immediate need to shape key climate provisions of the federal government’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), as well as finding new, rigorous ways to study long-term, complex issues on the horizon.
Green infrastructure. Expansion of clean energy at scale requires building extensive new infrastructure. We’re supporting leading research and policy efforts by faculty affiliate Prof. Zachary Liscow on why green infrastructure is slow and expensive to build in the US, and what to do about it.
Model behind biofuel policy obscures harm. Tobin Faculty Director Steve Berry and Senior Policy Fellow Tim Searchinger completed the first-ever, in-depth, independent analysis of the economic model that for decades has justified crop-based biofuels as environmentally friendly—and that underpins most biofuel policy and subsidy. They found that the model lacks empirical basis and yields physically impossible results. Citing abundant evidence that massive-scale cultivation of crops for fuel drives land conversion, they found the model vastly understates emissions and deforestation. The work is credited with helping prevent one IRA credit from becoming significantly harmful and with prompting a resolution of the influential California Air Resources Board to hold a public review of the model.
Renewable energy adoption. Faculty affiliate Prof. Costas Arkolakis’s work estimating the pace of renewable uptake on the grid, cited in the 2024 Economic Report of the President, has been called the most detailed projection of the pace of renewable energy adoption.
A path to green growth. Tobin Center-supported work by Profs. Michael Peters and Fabrizio Zilibotti examined how to achieve national and global economic growth differently than in the past: in a way that is greener by design. The work was cited in the New York Times and is gaining momentum in relevant policy circles, including the World Bank.
Data for studying electric vehicle uptake. We built the most comprehensive electric vehicle (EV) data set in the country—enabling essential market insights at what may be a disruptive time for the sector. We also embedded a data scientist in a state Department of Transportation to work with Tobin Faculty Affiliate Prof. Ken Gillingham on policies related to charging infrastructure and optimal state EV tax incentives.
Valuing ecosystems. The Biden White House released final guidance on measuring the value of ecosystem services, for which faculty affiliate Prof. Eli Fenichel was a lead author. Fenichel also advised on sensible, data-informed ways to implement the guidance.
Unblocking clean energy. Persistent delays in grid queues are cited as among the biggest challenges to scaling clean energy. We’ve successfully secured first-of-kind access to California grid data to disaggregate barriers and help solve long standing problems.
Steven Berry, Tobin Center Faculty Director and the David Swensen Professor of Economics, teaches at Yale.
RESEARCH HIGLIGHT: SOCIAL SAFETY NET
A first-of-kind University-state collaboration on Medicaid. In 2024, we worked with the Yale School of Public Health on a new effort to embed a Data Science Unit within the state of Connecticut’s Medicaid agency. This innovative collaboration will increase the speed at which the state can use data and evidence to shape real-time policy. We hope to see it pave the way for policy progress nationwide by serving as a model for how states, through similar efforts, can test different policy interventions on their unique Medicaid programs.
SNAP work requirements. Preceding a national debate on the merits of work requirements in social safety net programs, Tobin faculty affiliates Profs. Chima Ndumele and Jacob Wallace studied the impact within the SNAP program. They found that work requirements reduce SNAP enrollment by 25%, with no evidence of boosting employment. In fact, the share of SNAP recipients earning income dropped. Those most likely to lose benefits were older participants and those suffering from chronic conditions. Faculty suggest Medicaid may bear the brunt of lost SNAP benefits through increased preventable health care costs.
Professors Chima Ndumele, left, and Jacob Wallace, who are working with Connecticut officials on evidence-based research to improve the state’s Medicaid program.
IMPACT
First-ever evidence on the direct impacts of eviction
What we learned
Linking administrative and commercial data to eviction court records from two large urban areas—New York, NY and Cook County, IL—Profs. Winnie van Dijk and John Eric Humphries found that evictions led to multiple, and often compounding, negative outcomes. Evictions led to short-run increases in homelessness and residential mobility. They also led to declines in financial health and credit scores, as well as increases in the number of hospital visits.
How it made a difference
At a gathering of experts and policymakers in Connecticut committed to transforming the state’s approach to homelessness, van Dijk presented her work and provided decisionmakers with actionable information to inform their approach.
Fiona Scott Morton, who continues to be a leading voice on antitrust issues around tech companies like Meta and Google.
DIGITAL ECONOMY PROJECT
Competition, transparency, and safety in digital markets
The Tobin Center hosts the Digital Economy Project for Yale faculty who convene top global economists to collectively tackle pressing policy challenges posed by digital markets both in the U.S. and abroad.
Big Tech antitrust cases. Work on digital platforms by Prof. Fiona Scott Morton has proven to be influential on major federal antitrust cases, including those involving Google and Apple.
Youth online safety. Following our work with the U.S. Surgeon General’s office regarding their Advisory on the effect of social media and tech on kids, we were leading academic contributors to the report of the federal Kids Online Health and Safety Task Force.
Disseminating Yale research to decision makers at all levels of government
In 2024, we provided financial support for more than 70 research papers, 33 of which have now been published in top academic journals.
But our support doesn’t stop there. We work with scholars to ensure the research gains visibility by key decision makers. We build strong relationships with policymakers across party lines at all levels of government.
We disseminated and presented research at the White House, the International Monetary Fund, and several federal agencies including the Department of Energy, USAID, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Federal Trade Commission, the Treasury Department, the Department of Health and Human Services, and the National Science Foundation. We worked governor's offices, as well as school leaders in New Haven and Chicago Public Schools, local and state housing authorities, and two of the largest retirement savings account providers in the U.S. and U.K. Our work was cited 15 times in the 2024 Economic Report of the President.
We also served as a go-to source for reliable, impartial knowledge for the U.S. Congress. Through meetings with members of both the House and Senate, we’ve ensured high-quality research plays a role in federal legislative activity.
A research collaboration with Connecticut that's building state capacity
The Tobin Center has deepened its partnership with the state of Connecticut, creating a dynamic bridge between Yale researchers and state policymakers.
This collaboration not only enhances the state’s capacity to improve programs and policy, but enables Tobin to create new models at the state level for applying rigorous evidence and state-of-the-art economic analysis directly to real-world challenges— including many with national implications. This partnership has already enabled novel research by Yale economists working on child care, Medicaid, and electric vehicles.
The Governor’s Fellowship Program we built on behalf of Yale with the state and philanthropic partners is emerging as a premier model for state government fellowships. To date, the program has positioned 42 early-career professionals throughout state government to strengthen innovative programs and improve outcomes for residents. Remarkably, 100% of the most recent cohort chose to continue their careers in state government, bringing lasting talent to public service.
Tobin Center Governor's Fellows and Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont
A voice for data access
Across several fronts, we work behind-the-scenes to ensure researchers have access to critical data sources—always ensuring we meet the highest privacy and security standards. From our inception, this work has been a core part of Tobin’s mission. We will remain a voice responsible uses of data to enable research and improve services, while always ensuring against harm.
Retaining access to critical Medicare data. When the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) proposed significant changes to Medicare data access, the Tobin Center—led by Prof. Zack Cooper and Senior Policy Fellow Elizabeth Jurinka—played a key role in reversing the decision through extensive engagement with academic stakeholders and the White House, Health and Human Services, and CMS.
New firm-level data on supply chain disruptions. Tobin-supported Prof. Aleh Tsyvinski is developing a novel platform that offers highly-detailed information on supply chain disruptions in near-real time across a range of products, industries, and localities. Following on that progress, we’re currently forging a major new data collaboration to co-create what may be among the most detailed tracker of firm-level supply chains ever created.
Training the next generation of social science researchers
Our Pre-doctoral Fellowship Program is training the next generation of leaders in social science research. A vibrant and diverse community of approximately 70 scholars from around the world, the program supports young researchers as full-time research assistants for one or more faculty mentors while engaging them in additional training and educational activities.
Tobin Center 2024 Pre-doctoral Fellows
What’s next
The policy environment is changing, and we’re ready to respond. In the years ahead, we look forward to strengthening and expanding the relationships that help us build bridges between Yale researchers and the communities and individuals that can benefit from their work.
We are immensely grateful to our donors for making this work possible, and to our dedicated team for honoring their investment.
Together, we’re ensuring Yale research makes a difference in people’s lives while preparing the next generation of leaders in policy and social science.