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Research

The Tobin Center supports policy-relevant research across Yale and beyond through the Pre-Doctoral Fellows Program, seed funding, and various forms of in-kind support. Tobin-supported research spans all of our main initiatives, from Health Policy to Climate, and also includes exploratory economics research projects with potential policy applications.

Discussion Paper
Abstract

We quantify the distortionary effects of nexus tax laws on Amazon’s distribution network investments between 1999 and 2018. We highlight the role of two features of the expansion of Amazon’s network: densification of the network of distribution facilities and vertical integration into package sortation. Densification results in a reduction in the cost of shipping orders, but comes at the expense of higher facility operating costs in more expensive areas and lower scale economies of processing shipments. Nexus laws furthermore generate additional sales tax liabilities as the network grows. Combining data on household spending across online and offline retailers with detailed data on Amazon’s distribution network, we quantify these trade-offs through a static model of demand and a dynamic model of investment. Our results suggest that Amazon’s expansion led to significant shipping cost savings and facilitated the realization of aggregate economies of scale. We find that abolishing nexus tax laws in favor of a non-discriminatory tax policy would induce the company to decentralize its network, lowering its shipping costs. Non-discriminatory taxation would also entail lower revenue, however, as tax-inclusive prices would rise, resulting in a fall in profit overall. This drop and the decline in consumer welfare from higher taxes together fall short of the increases in tax revenue and rival profit, suggesting that the abolishment of nexus laws would lead to an increase in total welfare.

Abstract

How does integration between a dominant search engine and a publisher affect a search engine’s incentives to bias towards its own content? In addition, how does integration affect the quantity of ads on an integrated publisher’s site? In this paper, the authors develop a theoretical model to demonstrate the effects of no integration, partial integration, and full integration on search engine bias and quantity of publisher ads. The model also sheds lights on user and advertiser welfare after integration.

Abstract

A revolutionary approach to data ownership and privacy, Solid is a tech stack developed by the founder of the World Wide Web, Tim Berners-Lee. Solid’s mission is to decentralize the web by doing away with huge data silos, providing users ownership over their personal data, and reshaping the nature of competition among digital companies.

Abstract

Antitrust enforcement against anticompetitive platform most favored nations
(MFN) provisions (also termed pricing parity provisions) can help protect competition in online markets. An online platform imposes a platform MFN when it requires that providers using its platform not offer their products or services at a lower price on other platforms. These contractual provisions may be employed by a variety of online platforms offering, for example, hotel and transportation bookings, consumer goods, digital goods, or handmade craft products. They have been the subject of antitrust enforcement in Europe but have drawn only limited antitrust scrutiny in the United States. Our Feature explains why MFNs employed by online platforms can harm competition by keeping prices high and discouraging the entry of new platform rivals, through both exclusionary and collusive mechanisms, notwithstanding the possibility that some MFNs may facilitate investment by limiting customer freeriding. We discuss ways by which government enforcers in the United States and private plaintiffs could potentially reach anticompetitive platform MFNs under the Sherman Act, and the litigation challenges such cases present. 

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between two ubiquitous phenomena in the digital economy: online ad auctions and tracking cookies. The authors assess what happens to ad auction revenue when competing advertisers receive different kinds of information from their cookies. They find that the revenue to ad sellers like Google and Facebook changes dramatically based on ad auction structure and on the quantity and quality of information available to advertisers.

Discussion Paper
Abstract

The Yale Labor Survey (YLS) uses online panels to estimate the state of the US labor market in real time. It is designed to parallel the US government’s monthly labor force survey and present weekly information rapidly and inexpensively. Using an experimental design, the YLS estimates that the US unemployment rate peaked in late April and improved substantially by mid-June. The YLS unemployment rate in mid-June is estimated to be 15%, down about 2 percentage points from mid-May.

Abstract

Following the advent of Amazon Web Services (AWS) in 2006, the cost of starting a new business substantially decreased, leading venture capital firms to adapt their investment approach. The authors analyze why investors are increasingly adopting the “spray and pray” investment approach in early stages, provide limited governance, and prefer businesses where the future potential is revealed quickly and cheaply. Additionally, they use the technological shock of AWS to explain the rise of new financial intermediaries such as accelerators.

Abstract

How does price salience, or when fees are listed more clearly upfront, affect the quantity and quality of the product purchased? In this paper, the authors use a dataset from the online ticketing platform StubHub to show the effects of hiding buyer fees until the checkout page on consumer decisions for product choice, total revenue, and possible forces that might influence salience.