Research

This paper examines the effects of minimum lot area restrictions on housing prices, construction, and residential sorting in the United States. First, I develop a structural break detection algorithm to estimate neighborhood-level minimum lot areas nationwide and provide new evidence on the prevalence and restrictiveness of residential zoning. Second, I use a spatial discontinuity design to evaluate the impact of minimum lot area restrictions. I find that doubling the minimum lot area increases sales prices by 14 percent and rents by 6 percent and intensifies residential segregation. Third, I develop a model of housing demand and supply to estimate households’ preferences for neighborhood zoning stringency and regulatory costs in housing construction. I find that white households have strong preferences for strict zoning in their neighborhoods. I use the estimated model to evaluate a counterfactual zoning reform that halves minimum lot areas in Connecticut. The reform would substantially increase the supply of small and cheap homes and benefit racial minorities, while minimally affecting existing home values.

To determine which states had issued legislative and/or regulatory directives requiring vaccination of childcare and/or school personnel (as of November 1, 2021), we reviewed official archives of executive orders for all 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC) and COVID-19 state databases maintained by the National Conference of State Legislatures and the National Academy for State Health Policy. For each state with legislative or regulatory directives, we collected information on issue date and compliance deadline, type (e.g., executive order, public health order), issuer (e.g., governor, public health officer), availability of vaccine exemptions and testing alternatives, and acceptable proofs of vaccination.

While ten states (including DC) have issued directives requiring either COVID-19 vaccination or routine testing among school teachers, only half include childcare providers. This emerging trend suggests an unwarranted disparity between childcare and school settings in states’ efforts to promote vaccination, as the argument in favor of vaccinating the former is at least as strong as that of the latter for several reasons. First, both staff and children in childcare programs may be at higher risk for contracting COVID-19 than those in schools, given the congregation of infants and young children who are both ineligible for vaccination and possibly less effectively adherent to nonpharmaceutical interventions (e.g., masking, social distancing, handwashing). Second, childcare providers have a lower COVID-19 vaccine uptake compared to school teachers (78% versus 90% as of late Spring 2021). Finally, childcare providers skew more heavily minority, and therefore may be at greater risk for COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality (17.3 and 19.3 percent of childcare personnel are Black and Hispanic versus 12.1 and 13.0 percent of school personnel, respectively). To ensure equitable consideration for the health and safety of childcare providers and school teachers alike, states should consider expanding directives to include childcare providers—as has been done by both New Jersey and Illinois—to bridge the COVID-19 vaccination gap between childcare providers and school teachers.

We derive the optimal unilateral policy in a general equilibrium model of trade and climate change where one region of the world imposes a climate policy and the rest of the world does not. A climate policy in one region shifts activities—extraction, production, and consumption—in the other region. The optimal policy trades off the costs of these distortions. The optimal policy can be implemented through: (i) a nominal tax on extraction at a rate equal to the global marginal harm from emissions, (ii) a tax on imports of energy and goods, and a rebate of taxes on exports of energy but not goods, both at a lower rate than the extraction tax rate, and (iii) a goods-specific export subsidy. The policy controls leakage by combining supply-side and demand-side taxes to control the price of energy in the non-taxing region. It exploits international trade to expand the reach of the climate policy. We calibrate and simulate the model to illustrate how the optimal policy compares to more traditional policies such as extraction, production, and consumption taxes and combinations of those taxes. The simulations show that combinations of supply-side and demand-side taxes are much better than simpler policies and can perform nearly as well as the optimal policy.

To characterize vaccine uptake among US child care providers, we conducted a multistate cross-sectional survey of the child care workforce. Providers were identified through various national databases and state registries. A link to the survey was sent via e-mail between May 26 and June 23, 2021. A 37.8% response yielded 21 663 respondents, with 20 013 satisfying inclusion criteria. Overall COVID-19 vaccine uptake among US child care providers (78.2%, 90% confidence interval: 77.5% to 78.9%) was higher than the US general adult population (65%). Vaccination rates varied between states from 53.5% to 89.4%. Vaccine uptake among respondents differed significantly (P < .01) based on respondent age (70.0% for ages 25–34, 91.6% for ages 75–84), race (70.0% for Black or African Americans, 92.5% for Asian Americans), annual household income (70.8% for <$35 000, 85.1% for >$75 000), and child care setting (73.0% for home-based, 79.7% for center-based).

In the absence of widespread vaccination for COVID-19, governments and public health officials have advocated for the public to wear masks during the pandemic. The decision to wear a mask in public is likely affected by both beliefs about its efficacy and the prevalence of the behavior. Greater mask use in the community may encourage others to follow this norm, but it also creates an incentive for individuals to free ride on the protection afforded to them by others. We report the results of two vignette-based experiments conducted in the United States (n = 3,100) and Italy (n = 2,659) to examine the causal relationship between beliefs, social norms, and reported intentions to engage in mask promoting behavior. In both countries, survey respondents were quota sampled to be representative of the country’s population on key demographics. We find that providing information about how masks protect others increases the likelihood that someone would wear a mask or encourage others to do so in the United States, but not in Italy. There is no effect of providing information about how masks protect the wearer in either country. Additionally, greater mask use increases intentions to wear a mask and encourage someone else to wear theirs properly in both the United States and Italy. Thus, community mask use may be self-reinforcing.

We study heterogeneity in spending patterns around the time of retirement. Using rich consumption data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and exploiting within-household spending variation, we systematically classify households into groups characterized by differences in consumption transitions at retirement. We decompose the overall spending changes into the contribution made by different subcomponents of consumption. We find that the households that increase their spending shift budget away from food and toward transportation, recreation, and trips. In contrast, those households for which spending falls reduce the budget share spent on transportation and food away from home, while increasing the share allocated to food at home and housing expenditures. Using a life-cycle model, we characterize the mechanisms capable of driving these observed patterns.

We analyze nonlinear pricing with finite information. We consider a multi-product environment where each buyer has preferences over a d-dimensional variety of goods. The seller is limited to offering a finite number n of d-dimensional choices. The limited menu reflects a finite communication capacity between the buyer and seller.
We identify necessary conditions that the optimal finite menu must satisfy, for either the socially efficient or the revenue-maximizing mechanism. These conditions require that information be bundled, or "quantized," optimally. We introduce vector quantization and establish that the losses due to finite menus converge to zero at a rate of 1/n2/d_ In the canonical model with one-dimensional products and preferences, this establishes that the loss resulting from using the n-item menu converges to zero at a rate proportional to 1 /n2 . 

This is the fifth in a series of papers prepared by a collection of economists and policy experts in the United States, the UK, and the European Union who have studied, and are committed to the improvement of, competition in digital markets. Previous papers addressed consumer protection in online markets, regulating the market for general search services, the concepts of “fairness” and “contestability” as used in the Digital Markets Act, and the use of “equitable interoperability” as a “super tool” to restore and encourage competition in online markets.

Consider a market with identical firms offering a homogeneous good. For any given ex ante distribution of the price count (the number of firms from which a consumer obtains a quote), we derive a tight upper bound on the equilibrium distribution of sales prices. The bound holds across all models of firms’ common-prior higher-order beliefs about the price count, including the extreme cases of full information and no information. One implication of our results is that a small ex ante probability that the price count is equal to one can lead to a large increase in the expected price. The bound also applies in a large class of models where the price count distribution is endogenously determined.